This paper estimates the short-term impact of a twofold increase of the tobacco excise tax on consumption of illicit cigarette trade in Colombia. Using data collected before and after the tax increase from a novel smoker survey (DEICS-Col), the impact is estimated as the change in the probability that a smoker has illicit cigarettes. The methodology follows a difference-in-differences strategy, measuring the year-to-year variation of the proportion of illicit cigarettes between smokers who report buying low-priced cigarettes (the highest treatment intensity) and those who bought high-priced cigarettes (lowest treatment intensity). Estimations of the impact show an average increase of 4–5 percentage points on the proportion of illicit cigarettes relative to an initial penetration of low-priced illicit cigarettes of nearly 5.1 %.


  • Blanca Llorente
  • Juan Gallego
  • Norman Maldonado
  • Paul Rodríguez
  • Susana Otálvaro

Palabras clave:

  • health beaviour
  • illicit cigarette trade
  • tobacco control
  • tobacco excisetaxes


  • Proyecto 5
  • Publicación