A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement

Violent environments affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data from Colombia and a difference-in-differences strategy, we study how the end of the 5-decade long conflict with the FARC insurgency affected fertility outcomes in areas traditionally affected by FARC’s violence relative to the rest of the country. We find that, after the start of a permanent ceasefire in December 2014, Colombia’s secular reduction of the total fertility rate slowed down in treated municipalities. In particular, the aggregate fertility rate differentially increased in these areas by 2.6 per cent. The differential increase in fertility rates is larger in municipalities with higher levels of landmine victims and expelled internally displaced people at baseline, and it is not driven by the behaviour of any particular age-specific fertility rate. We interpret this evidence as consistent with an increased optimism to raise children in a better environment.